Endorisng Newt Gingrich in the South Carolina Primary

I've been saying here that although the Republican party usually nominates the "next in line," Romney's candidacy could be the exception. Despite MR being a "known quality" as a second-place finisher in 2008, and his "electability" against president Obama, he is not treading well. All the shooting stars, several of them, were capturing the anti-MR. None of the anti-MR is a clear favorite either, but I still believe that the GOP will go more traditional and select someone else than MR.

Just after N. Hampshire--which MR won but in the 30's, despite NH being his "back yard"--MR had a huge lead in South Carolina. Today, Newt Gingrich is surging and I think he'll win the "first primary in the South." This contest may go on for a long while. The question is what Santorum [if you're curious about him, Google "Santorum"] will do. If he drops out then NG will get a boost. Ron Paul is a marginal candidate and will not win the nomination. He may have enough delegates to be a player at the convention but that's all.

Obama's close allies and advisers prefer NG to MR, because they think NG has a lot a baggage and is more ideologically and politically stuck to a brand of conservatism that most Americans don't like. I agree. So, though this blog, I endorse NG in the SC primary!

Appealing to the lowest common denominator is a shooting sport in SC

By the way, to dispel any rumors that NG is an intellectual or anything of that sort, when ever you hear that Newt is the smartest in the room, leave that room!

Is New Hampshire Romney's Last Clear Win?



The first primary in New Hampshire, following the Iowa caucuses, will not settle anything in the Republican field but it'll show that the party is still looking for the anti-Romney. The latter will win NH but since this has been expected, it'll be no big news. Ron Paul will have a nice showing but he's a marginal player for now. J. Huntsman may come second, which will be very good for him,  but that's all--he won't go anywhere past NH. Santorum may get some wind if he finishes close 4th. Gringrich, "I can't see how I won't be the nominee," will finish 5th. South Carolina will probably be more important in narrowing the field of the contenders.



The song and dance of the good ol' days of the Repubs

 If Romney wins anything less than the expectations (I'd say, under 50%), then N.H. may be his last big win. Does he need big wins after that? That will depend on how long the race for the nomination will be and his opposition. He may be the last man standing in the end, but he will not have captured the Repub base, nor will he energize all the Rebubs to come out and vote for him in November.



Long ago, I argued that Romney could not be the nominee of this GOP, because of his faith, his flipflopping, and the perception he's Obama-light. Yet, there hasn't been a good anti-Romney, and he's benefited from a split opposition, that may change soon though. The GOP normally nominates "the next in line" and Romney should be running away with the nomination if he was from the South or had Santorum's extreme conservatism.

As for the issues these GOP candidates are pushing, they're a garden variety of Reagan-worshipping [notice the absense of the Bushes?], and ridiculous general statements about how great America is, big business need more tax breaks and no regulations, and that Sharia should be banned from the US! Whatever.

Meanwhile in Democratic politics, Obama clearly is focusing on the independents. For several months now this important group is split between "re-electing the president" and "a Repub should be the prez".  Also, Obama's concentrating on winning a couple swing states as the electoral college map calculations have changed.

I've heard this from different sources, but I don't know if it's the same rumour being re-circulated or there are actual discussions taking place. That is, Hillary and Joe will switch places. I had heard that Hillary would retire soon, but a VP position may change that. Biden wanted to be Secretary of State so he may be game too.